Solar Panel Savings & Payback Calculator (2026)
Is solar still worth it now that the federal tax credit has expired? Estimate your system size, cost, payback period and 25-year savings — for your state, with every assumption shown. No email required.
⚡ Solar Savings Calculator by WorthCrunch
Estimates are approximate and for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Data as of 2026. Always get itemized local quotes before deciding.
How this solar calculator works
Most solar calculators online still assume the 30% federal tax credit. That credit — the residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D) — expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025 (here's exactly what changed and what still counts). This calculator is built for the 2026 reality, so the numbers you see reflect what cash and loan buyers actually pay today.
Here's the math, with nothing hidden:
- Production = system size (kW) × your state's peak sun hours × 365 days × 0.83 system-loss derate × your shading factor.
- System size is set to offset roughly 100% of your annual electricity use.
- Gross cost = size × $/watt (national average ≈ $2.85/W, editable).
- Net cost = gross cost − federal credit (now $0 for cash/loan in 2026) − any state/local incentives you enter.
- Annual savings = energy offset valued at your electricity rate, then grown 3%/yr for rising utility prices and reduced 0.5%/yr for panel aging.
- Payback period = the year your cumulative savings finally exceed your net cost.
Everything above is editable in the “Advanced assumptions” panel. If you don't trust an input, change it — that's the point.
Is solar worth it in 2026?
Short answer: it depends far more on where you live than it used to. With the federal credit gone for purchases, the two levers that decide whether solar pays off are your electricity rate and your sun:
- Strong case: high-rate, sunny states like California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Arizona and Nevada — payback can still land in a reasonable window.
- Weaker case: low-rate states (Washington, Utah, North Dakota, Louisiana) where cheap power means solar takes much longer to pay back.
- Lease / PPA: with $0 down, the third-party owner may still claim a commercial credit through 2027, so this path can offer day-one savings without the long payback — but you don't own the asset or capture its full value.
Run your own numbers above — the calculator shows the cash/loan and lease/PPA outcomes side by side.
Frequently asked questions
Is solar worth it in 2026 without the federal tax credit?
The 30% residential credit (25D) expired for systems placed in service after Dec 31, 2025. Solar can still pay off in high-rate, sunny states, but cash/loan payback periods are now longer. Lease/PPA deals may still capture third-party credits through 2027. The calculator estimates your specific case.
How accurate is this estimate?
It's a transparent ballpark, not a roof-level engineering quote. It uses state-average sun and electricity rates (both editable). For a binding number, get itemized local installer quotes — but use this first so you know whether those quotes are reasonable.
Do you require my email or store my data?
No. Everything runs in your browser. Nothing is uploaded, and there's no sign-up. You can even share your result via a link — your inputs are encoded in the URL, not saved on a server.
What's a good solar payback period?
Many homeowners aim for under ~10–12 years so the system pays for itself well within its 25+ year life. After the federal credit's expiry, watch this number closely in low-rate states.
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Is solar worth it in your state?
Solar economics swing wildly by state — it's mostly about your electricity rate and your sun. We've crunched the 2026 payback for an average home in each state:
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · Washington D.C. · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
See solar payback by state →
Methodology & data sources
Peak sun hours are annual daily averages by state. Electricity rates are approximate average residential prices (USD/kWh). Install cost defaults to a national average of ~$2.85/watt. Assumptions: 0.83 system-loss derate, 3%/yr electricity price escalation, 0.5%/yr panel degradation, 0.85 lb CO₂/kWh grid average, 25-year horizon. Federal residential credit (25D) modeled at 0% for cash/loan systems placed in service in 2026 per current law. All figures are estimates; verify with local quotes. Data reviewed 2026.